If someone was lucky in some operations, but he knows he is not sufficiently prepared you'd say keep your enthusiasm and take his "good luck" because it was just that. And good luck does not last for life.
Secondly there are thousands of strategies abound! But you do not know if they have a good level of confidence, but the evidence in the demo and the testeas parallel. Forex trading is a matter of odds, you have a strategy that 10 inputs 8 are good and 2 bad.
So if you have reasonable limits and stops your strategy should work and in a month your account "should" be with nice numbers for your view. It happens that novice traders make the mistake of not testing a strategy as it should. Overconfidence that eventually will become very, very expensive. A I mean:
1. If I'm going to try one (obvious that in the demo) strategy should have at least 2 or 4 months of testing with it, with some 200 or 400 inputs to operate (also depends on the method).
But how do you think we can say conclusively that this or that strategy is better? Impossible, if not prove with as much data as possible.
2. Another classic mistake is to make entries (in your time test of that strategy) that have nothing to do with the system.
I know many traders as they test their systems combine with other systems or make entries "common sense" or "because it seems" and end up ruining the sample of the initial strategy. Conclusion, they never knew whether the strategy was evaluated good or poor.
3. Nor make a real Backtesting should be about 100 to 200 data your system. The Backtesting do it against the past, it can be any weekend without the need that the market is open. But yes, you should do it because if we are not talking about something that in theory is good.
But you need data to prove it. This work is like that of a scientist who has to prove his invention and if this is not (end no sustainable profitability is justifiable) is discarded and we start.
4. Another classic mistake is to test strategies without regard to reality. Is putting on very large lots, very high stops and all those things that in real life you would not.
Then test your strategy with the minimum amount of lots and limits and stops that are reasonable.
5. Opera demo as if it were real. Nothing risky, heroic, or news media operations, that will let them fools.
Methods abound, all are on the Web, even yourself can create new method or hybrids of existing methods. Try them. Testéenlos the suffering, nobody will do for you. And forget about the Web as operator tell you some method generates 10% or 40% per month, that I must try. Anyone fool you or sell you smoke.
The best choice as an introductory course, and simple strategy:
La parte neuronal de la operatoria es la psicológica. Ningún método funciona sino estas bien preparado en ese sentido:
· No tenerle miedo a las entradas
· Respetar tu método
· Ser responsable
· Confiar en la probabilidad de tu método
· Y muchos aspectos más hacen la diferencia entre un trader mediocre y otro bueno.
Operar es un tema de control y no muchas personas lo pueden aprender, lamentablemente es así. Aprender a controlarnos es lo más difícil y la puerta al éxito rotundo. Será por eso que solo el 5% de los traders que operan Forex les va bien y al 95% les va rotundamente mal. Ese 5% controla suficientemente bien su parte psicológica. Para operar Forex y tener éxito no se necesita ser un experto analista de mercado o ser un adivino de los métodos fundamentales. Soy de los que piensan que el método lo puedes encontrar en cualquier parte. Que lo puedes probar cuantas veces desees (al final es operativo son número y estos no engañan), tu probabilidad de un método bien testeado a la larga debe salir a relucir y no fallarte estadísticamente hablando. Pero el control no, eso marca la diferencia.
¿Quién enseña a que un operador novato se controle y no haga entradas sin sentido o al azar? Eso solo lo aprendemos con los golpes y perdiendo dinero. A menos que tengamos un buen mentor que nos ayude desde el principio y te enseñe que errores no se deben cometer en la operatoria. Lamentablemente no todos tenemos esa suerte. Si conocen gente capaz y con tiempo operando entonces pidan consejo, escuchen experiencias, hagan muchas preguntas. Así se forma un buen trader.
Espero les puedan servir mis apreciaciones. Forex ofrece un potencial espectacular de hacer capital y llenarnos de beneficios, y más aún de enseñar a otras personas a que también lo aprovechen, pero es muy cierto también que esta faena está llena de sangre, sudor y lágrimas y mucho, pero mucho control. Que al final debe conducirnos al éxito y a una buena gestión de capital.